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Article

The Message of the Yield Curve

This special edition of the Economic Perspective examines the unusual behavior of the yield curve during the current business cycle.

Article

The Message of the Yield Curve

This special edition of the Economic Perspective examines the unusual behavior of the yield curve during the current business cycle.

Article

The Message of the Yield Curve

This special edition of the Economic Perspective examines the unusual behavior of the yield curve during the current business cycle.

The yield curve can offer valuable insights for investors. Based upon its slope at any given time, the curve provides investors with a useful tool for analysis of the economy, credit conditions, monetary policy, and the US Treasury market. An inverted yield curve has generally signaled restrictive monetary conditions, which often culminates in a recession. Conversely, a steep upward slope is indicative of expectations for strong economic growth, rising inflation, and looming policy rate hikes. The inverted yield curve of the past 32 months is a conundrum because it has occurred during a period of strong economic growth and accommodative monetary and credit conditions... READ MORE

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December 10, 2024

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