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A Major Inflection Point: The Long-Term Economic Consequences of the Pandemic

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This week’s Economic Perspective focuses on the long-term economic consequences of the pandemic.
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The Covid-19 pandemic that began in early 2020 marked a crucial inflection point for the global economy and was arguably one of the most significant economic shocks of the past 100 years. Perhaps the most significant repercussion of the pandemic is an enlarged presence and role of the federal government. Exceptionally large budget deficits are likely to persist in future years, with broad economic, financial, and investment implications.

Compared with an average annual rate of 2% since 2000, consumer inflation is likely to average close to 3.3% over the next five years. Investors should expect the Federal Reserve to embrace a more  restrictive monetary policy when compared to recent decades, implying a flatter yield curve... READ MORE

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February 5, 2024
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