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An Unconventional Balance Sheet Expansion

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This week’s Economic Perspective is about the current outlook for economic growth and why forecasters have mistakenly predicted a recession over the past 18 months.
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The vast majority of economists have been mistakenly predicting a recession over the past 18 months. The obvious explanation is that traditional indicators of the business cycle have been of little value in tracking this unprecedented expansion cycle. The basic conclusion of this report is that the exceptional strength of private sector balance sheets has more than offset headwinds associated with the severe tightening in monetary conditions. The three critical implications of sustained economic growth are stubbornly high inflation, better-than-expected corporate profitability, and a prolonged period of elevated policy rates... READ MORE

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July 27, 2023
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