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Quarterly Economic Outlook 1Q24

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This week’s Economic Perspective is a quarterly economic outlook for 1Q24.
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The US economy remains on a sustained growth path, with inflation-adjusted GDP increasing at an estimated annual rate of 2.5% in the first quarter, well above the economy’s long-term growth potential, estimated at 2%. US GDP is benefitting from ongoing strength in private consumption, nonresidential fixed investment, and government spending. I continue to believe that the probability of a recession during the next year is low because the traditional catalysts for an economic downturn are not yet in place.

My 2024 forecast assumes real GDP growth of 2.5% and an average core consumer inflation rate of 3.5%. Company earnings growth should average close to 10%, while the unemployment rate should remain below 4%. The downside to this otherwise healthy economic backdrop is the potential for sustained upward pressure on inflation, implying a more hawkish Federal Reserve and a high likelihood of another upleg in long-term interest rates... READ MORE

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March 25, 2024
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