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Crosscurrents in the Outlook for Inflation

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This week’s Economic Perspective focuses on the outlook for inflation.
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The trend in core inflation will continue on a downward path over the next six months, but at a slower pace than generally expected. A further meaningful decline in inflation from current levels will be difficult to achieve over the next year in an environment of solid economic growth, business pricing power, and the tightest labor market in 50 years. The Fed will be compelled to maintain policy rates at current levels, thereby disappointing bond bulls. The path of least resistance for Treasury bond yields is upward... READ MORE

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August 28, 2023
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