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Long-Term Investment Returns

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This week’s Economic Perspective looks at fundamental investment trends over the next five years, characterized by higher inflation and interest rates.
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An analysis of fundamental trends suggests that the next five years will be very different from that of the previous five, characterized by higher inflation and interest rates. My forecast assumes that the inflation rate will average 3.5% over the five years ending in 2028, with an average yield of 5% on benchmark ten-year US Treasury bonds. Global equities should outperform global bonds, with leadership likely to be found in international markets. Small-capitalization stocks and value stock managers should also outperform the S&P 500, which is intrinsically a large-cap growth index. Following a period of cumulative losses since 2018, a diversified portfolio of investment-grade bonds should generate positive total returns, although only slightly above the 3.5% inflation rate... READ MORE

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October 23, 2023
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