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Quarterly Economic Outlook 4Q23

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This week’s Economic Perspective is a quarterly economic outlook for 4Q23.
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There are no changes to the broad contour of my economic forecast. Real GDP should expand at a 2% annual rate over the next four quarters, accompanied by a 5-8% increase in company earnings through the middle of 2024. Currently at 4.5%, core consumer inflation will continue to decline but will encounter resistance early next year around 3.5%. Credit quality has deteriorated — consistent with business cycle theory — but not yet at an alarming pace. Federal Reserve policy is on hold for the foreseeable future, but policy rates are likely to remain higher for longer than currently discounted in the bond market... READ MORE

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September 18, 2023
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