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Quarterly Investment Outlook

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This week’s Economic Perspective is a Quarterly Economic Outlook over the next year and into 2024.
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The central theme in the investment outlook resolves around the traditional business cycle, which is currently in the final phase of expansion that began in mid-2020. Economic and financial conditions will deteriorate as the expansion cycle draws to a close, thereby sowing the seeds for a recession later next year. The outlook for world financial markets will be determined primarily by monetary policy and the future path of inflation. Further meaningful gains in stock prices seem implausible in the face of tightening financial conditions. A combination of elevated inflation and continued monetary tightening will trigger a breakout in yields later this year, accompanied by a contraction in equity valuations... READ MORE

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July 5, 2023
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